Definition
False Consensus Effect: People overestimate the proportion of others who share their views, preferences, or behavior—assuming “most people would do the same as me,” when in fact others–choices are often more diverse.[1]
Mechanism and evidence
Ross, Greene & House (1977) showed that whichever option participants chose, they tended to estimate that a majority would choose the same.[1]
Consumer decision patterns
“Everyone buys this,” “Normal people would pick this one”—using one’s own preference as a proxy for others” assuming reviews and sales rankings represent “everyone’s— fit, ignoring need heterogeneity.
Mitigation (Selection Logic)
T1 and T1.1 state there is no product best for everyone. False consensus leads to using “what others choose–instead of your own need clarification.
- Separate “my preference–from “what I think most people prefer” use data (e.g. review spread, sales mix) to calibrate.
- Ask “Does others choosing A mean A fits me?”—fit depends on your needs and weights.
- Use dimensions and weights instead of “normal people would–as the basis for choice.